Estimated Budgetary Effects of Title VII, Finance, Within an Amendment in the Nature of a Substitute to H.R. 1

CBO provides information regarding the agency's analysis of an amendment in the nature of a substitute to H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as posted on the website of the Senate Committee on the Budget on June 27, 2025 (https://tinyurl.com/2ejs4ut5).

CBO prepared two estimates for the legislation. The first is relative to the budget enforcement baseline for consideration in the Senate. That baseline reflects adjustments regarding current tax policy made by the Chairman of the Senate Committee on the Budget.

The second estimate is relative to CBO’s January 2025 baseline. CBO is required to construct its baseline under the assumptions specified in the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985 (Public Law 99-177) and the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974 (P.L. 93-344).

In response to questions—about the cost of title VII, Finance, estimated against CBO’s January 2025 baseline—here are CBO’s answers:

Would title VII, Finance, increase the deficit by more than $1.5 trillion over the 2025–2034 period?

Yes. CBO estimates that enacting title VII would increase the deficit by nearly $3.5 trillion over the 2025–2034 period relative to the amount in the January 2025 baseline.

Would title VII, Finance, increase deficits in any year beyond 2034?

Yes, CBO estimates that title VII would also increase deficits in years after 2034.